(Updated for 2018) Since it became clear that Donald J. Trump would emerge victorious in the US Presidential election, we’ve been hard at work figuring out just how likely he his make it through to January 2021 without an extra hole somewhere on his person.
We’re ignoring the fact that he’ll be 74 when he leaves the Oval Office and has about a 4% of dying of natural causes by then, and looking purely at the probability that he’ll be taken out by a ‘nut with a gun’.
If we look back at the last few presidents we see that there have been plenty of attempts on their lives. Counting only the ones the secret service knew about we have the following:
George HW Bush: 1
Bill Clinton: 4
Georgy W Bush: 1
Barack Obama: 5
So it seems like the Democratic Presidents need to spend a bit more time looking over their shoulder than their Republican counterparts. Donald Trump is a different proposition though. He’s divided people like no other president in recent memory.
Though defending the 2nd amendment has traditionally been the work of Republicans, there has to be plenty of gun-toting Democrats that just can’t see how America can prosper under a man who they view as an uber-capitalist, misogynist, racist President. The guy has just offended too many people.
You know the stereotypical Mexican gangsters from Training Day and a million other movies? Yea, those guys have got to be pretty pissed off. It’s pretty certain that someone will have a go at de-Trumping the White House.
A Dangerous Job
So, if someone has a go…how likely are they to be successful. Well if you look at the history, four of the guys who’ve held the office out of 44 have bought it while in the job in history, so right there you can see that you’re a 1 in 11 chance to die in office. Now, one has to imagine that the secret service is better equipped and has better intelligence than they did back in the days of 1865 when Abraham Lincoln decided to go to Ford’s Theatre.
Given that it’s pretty certain there are going to be multiple attempts to take out The Donald, his aides are going to be kept busy. However, these guys are the best in the business and to be honest I’m expecting a Blackhawk outside my house within minutes of posting this article. All things considered, we reckon he’s about a 33/1 shot to get a State funeral some time between now and 2021.
However -at the moment, you can’t actually bet on him getting assassinated with any licensed bookmaker, but you CAN bet on him being impeached.
Odds on Impeachment
Bookies are offering odds of a Trump impeachment are 6/4 for that to happen – which one would think is actually a pretty good bet!
- To Leave Office Via Impeachment Or Resignation Before End 1st Term: 6/4
- NOT to be re-elected as president in 2020: 2/5
- To serve full first term: 4/7 (ends in 2021)
(Odds updated 24 April 2018)
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